Surveillance To Track Progress Toward Poliomyelitis Eradication - Worldwide, 2021-2022.

Since the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) was established in 1988, the number of wild poliovirus (WPV) cases has declined by >99.9%, and WPV serotypes 2 and 3 have been declared eradicated (1). By the end of 2022, WPV type 1 (WPV1) transmission remained endemic only in Afghanistan and Pakistan (2,3). However, during 2021-2022, Malawi and Mozambique reported nine WPV1 cases that were genetically linked to Pakistan (4,5), and circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks were detected in 42 countries (6). cVDPVs are oral poliovirus vaccine-derived viruses that can emerge after prolonged circulation in populations with low immunity allowing reversion to neurovirulence and can cause paralysis. Polioviruses are detected primarily through surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP), and poliovirus is confirmed through stool specimen testing. Environmental surveillance, the systematic sampling of sewage and testing for the presence of poliovirus, supplements AFP surveillance. Both surveillance systems were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic's effects on public health activities during 2020 (7,8) but improved in 2021 (9). This report updates previous reports (7,9) to describe surveillance performance during 2021-2022 in 34 priority countries.* In 2022, a total of 26 (76.5%) priority countries met the two key AFP surveillance performance indicator targets nationally compared with 24 (70.6%) countries in 2021; however, substantial gaps remain in subnational areas. Environmental surveillance expanded to 725 sites in priority countries, a 31.1% increase from the 553 sites reported in 2021. High-quality surveillance is critical to rapidly detect poliovirus transmission and enable prompt poliovirus outbreak response to stop circulation. Frequent monitoring of surveillance guides improvements to achieve progress toward polio eradication.

Achieving the "Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S." incidence reduction goals among at-risk populations in the South.

INTRODUCTION: Antiretroviral medication coverage remains sub-optimal in much of the United States, particularly the Sothern region, and Non-Hispanic Black or African American persons (NHB) continue to be disproportionately impacted by the HIV epidemic. The "Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S." (EHE) initiative seeks to reduce HIV incidence nationally by focusing resources towards the most highly impacted localities and populations. This study evaluates the impact of hypothetical improvements in ART and PrEP coverage to estimate the levels of coverage needed to achieve EHE goals in the South. METHODS: We developed a stochastic, agent-based network model of 500,000 individuals to simulate the HIV epidemic and hypothetical improvements in ART and PrEP coverage. RESULTS: New infections declined by 78.6% at 90%/40% ART/PrEP and 94.3% at 100%/50% ART/PrEP. Declines in annual incidence rates surpassed 75% by 2025 with 90%/40% ART/PrEP and 90% by 2030 with 100%/50% ART/PrEP coverage. Increased ART coverage among NHB MSM was associated with a linear decline in incidence among all MSM. Declines in incidence among Hispanic/Latino and White/Other MSM were similar regardless of which MSM race group increased their ART coverage, while the benefit to NHB MSM was greatest when their own ART coverage increased. The incidence rate among NHB women declined by over a third when either NHB heterosexual men or NHB MSM increased their ART use respectively. Increased use of PrEP was associated with a decline in incidence for the groups using PrEP. MSM experienced the largest absolute declines in incidence with increasing PrEP coverage, followed by NHB women. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis indicates that it is possible to reach EHE goals. The largest reductions in HIV incidence can be achieved by increasing ART coverage among MSM and all race groups benefit regardless of differences in ART initiation by race. Improving ART coverage to > 90% should be prioritized with a particular emphasis on reaching NHB MSM. Such a focus will reduce the largest number of incident cases, reduce racial HIV incidence disparities among both MSM and women, and reduce racial health disparities among persons with HIV. NHB women should also be prioritized for PrEP outreach.

Polio eradication: Addressing the hurdles on the last mile.

1988, the World Health Assembly committed to eradicate poliomyelitis, a viral disease that can cause permanent paralysis. Today, only type 1 of the three wild poliovirus types remains circulating in limited geographic areas following widespread use of different poliovirus vaccines. While we are close to zero new cases of wild polio, it is a fragile situation, and there are many remaining and new hurdles to overcome. Here, experts discuss how to address them.

Progress Toward Global Eradication of Dracunculiasis - Worldwide, January 2021-June 2022.

Dracunculiasis (Guinea worm disease), caused by the parasite Dracunculus medinensis, is acquired by drinking water containing small crustacean copepods (water fleas) infected with D. medinensis larvae. Recent evidence suggests that the parasite also appears to be transmitted by eating fish or other aquatic animals. About 1 year after infection, the worm typically emerges through the skin on a lower limb of the host, causing pain and disability (1). No vaccine or medicine is available to prevent or treat dracunculiasis. Eradication relies on case containment* to prevent water contamination and other interventions to prevent infection, including health education, water filtration, treatment of unsafe water with temephos (an organophosphate larvicide), and provision of safe drinking water (1,2). CDC began worldwide eradication efforts in October 1980, and in 1984 was designated by the World Health Organization (WHO) as the technical monitor of the Dracunculiasis Eradication Program (1). In 1986, with an estimated 3.5 million cases† occurring annually in 20 African and Asian countries§ (3), the World Health Assembly called for dracunculiasis elimination. The Guinea Worm Eradication Program (GWEP),¶ led by The Carter Center and supported by partners that include WHO, UNICEF, and CDC, began assisting ministries of health in countries with endemic disease. In 2021, a total of 15 human cases were identified and three were identified during January-June 2022. As of November 2022, dracunculiasis remained endemic in five countries (Angola, Chad, Ethiopia, Mali, and South Sudan); cases reported in Cameroon were likely imported from Chad. Eradication efforts in these countries are challenged by infection in animals, the COVID-19 pandemic, civil unrest, and insecurity. Animal infections, mostly in domestic dogs, some domestic cats, and in Ethiopia, a few baboons, have now surpassed human cases, with 863 reported animal infections in 2021 and 296 during January-June 2022. During the COVID-19 pandemic all national GWEPs remained fully operational, implementing precautions to ensure safety of program staff members and community members. In addition, the progress toward eradication and effectiveness of interventions were reviewed at the 2021 and 2022 annual meetings of GWEP program managers, and the 2021 meeting of WHO's International Commission for the Certification of Dracunculiasis Eradication. With only 15 human cases identified in 2021 and three during January-June 2022, program efforts appear to be closer to reaching the goal of eradication. However, dog infections and impeded access because of civil unrest and insecurity in Mali and South Sudan continue to be the greatest challenges for the program. This report describes progress during January 2021-June 2022 and updates previous reports (2,4).

Progress Toward Regional Measles Elimination - Worldwide, 2000-2021.

All six World Health Organization (WHO) regions have committed to eliminating measles.* The Immunization Agenda 2021-2030 (IA2030)† aims to achieve the regional targets as a core indicator of impact and positions measles as the tracer of a health system's ability to deliver essential childhood vaccines. IA2030 highlights the importance of ensuring rigorous measles surveillance systems to document immunity gaps and achieve 95% coverage with 2 timely doses of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) among children. This report describes progress toward measles elimination during 2000-2021 and updates a previous report (1). During 2000-2021, estimated global coverage with a first MCV dose (MCV1) increased from 72% to a peak of 86% in 2019, but decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic to 83% in 2020 and to 81% in 2021, the lowest MCV1 coverage recorded since 2008. All countries conducted measles surveillance, but only 47 (35%) of 135 countries reporting discarded cases§ achieved the sensitivity indicator target of two or more discarded cases per 100,000 population in 2021, indicating surveillance system underperformance in certain countries. Annual reported measles incidence decreased 88% during 2000-2016, from 145 to 18 cases per 1 million population, then rebounded to 120 in 2019 during a global resurgence (2), before declining to 21 in 2020 and to 17 in 2021. Large and disruptive outbreaks were reported in 22 countries. During 2000-2021, the annual number of estimated measles deaths decreased 83%, from 761,000 to 128,000; an estimated 56 million measles deaths were averted by vaccination. To regain progress and achieve regional measles elimination targets during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, accelerating targeted efforts is necessary to reach all children with 2 MCV doses while implementing robust surveillance and identifying and closing immunity gaps to prevent cases and outbreaks.

Pandemic realism as the indispensable political precondition for global disease eradication.

This article examines the politico-scientific mechanism, which leads nations to declare an epidemic or a pandemic finished, irrespective of the actual epidemiological situation at a given time. A historical comparison is made with the famous behavior of Emperor Justinian I (482-565 CE) during the plague pandemic named after him (part of the first plague pandemic). Finally, a reference to the importance of the multidisciplinary study of the history of medicine and the intersection between pandemics and wars is made.

Measles incidence in South Africa: a six-year review, 2015-2020.

In 2012 the World Health Organization (WHO) aimed to eliminate measles in five regions by 2020. This retrospective descriptive study reviewed measles surveillance data in South Africa for the period 2015-2020 to document the epidemiology of measles and the progress made towards meeting the 2020 measles elimination goal.A total of 22,578 specimens were tested over the period 2015-2020 yielding 401 (1.8%) confirmed measles cases, 321 (1.4%) compatible and 21,856 (96.8%) discarded cases. The most affected age group was 0-4 year olds. At the provincial level, South Africa achieved adequate surveillance, defined as more than two cases of febrile rash notified annually per 100 000 popoulation, except for KwaZulu-Natal and Limpopo in 2020, probably due to COVID-19 lockdown restrictions. Of confirmed cases, only 26% were vaccinated, 3% were too young to receive vaccines, 5% were not vaccinated, and 65% had unknown vaccination status. Measles vaccine effectiveness amongst 1-4 year olds was 80%. Using the standard case definition, South Africa achieved the measles elimination target of less than one case per one million nationally in years 2015, 2016 and 2020. The years 2017 to 2019 had incidence rates exceeding one per million nationally. Using a narrow case definition, that excluded positive rubella cases, improved the indicators with only the year 2017 having an incidence rate of more than one per million.South Africa displays intermittent measles outbreaks approximately six-yearly interspersed by inter-epidemic periods in which the country meets measles elimination targets. Intense effort is needed to increase the vaccine coverage to avoid periodic outbreaks. Enhanced molecular testing of each case will be required as measles incidence declines regionally.

Mass drug administration for lymphatic filariasis elimination amidst COVID-19 pandemic in Odisha, India: A step towards achieving SDG-3.

Sustainable Development Goal-3 (SDG) aims to eliminate lymphatic filariasis by 2030 through >65% coverage and compliance of mass drug administration (MDA), the preventive chemotherapy strategy of delivering anthelminthic drugs. However, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted such programmes, yet MDA was administered during February 2021 in Odisha, India. We aimed to assess the coverage and compliance of the present round of MDA amidst the pandemic and explore factors for non-compliance in Cuttack district of Odisha, a filariasis endemic area. Community-based participants enrolled through multistage stratified sampling were administered a semi-structured questionnaire following COVID-19 protocols. The coverage of MDA was 93.2% whereas consumption was 73.7%. Participants reported that healthcare workers were motivated and satisfactorily explained the benefits of MDA but still fear of side-effects was the major cause of non-compliance. Nonetheless, this recent round of MDA was effective, despite challenges posed by the ongoing pandemic.